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The Data Scientist

crypto bullishness

What’s driving the current surge in crypto bullishness? 

Bitcoin has been making headlines lately with its latest milestone, a rise from around $120K to over $123K in just a matter of hours. Managing to hit a new ATH, the performance’s positive impact on the fear and greed index is crystal clear and the asset’s demand is even predicted to continue. This index represents a tool that evaluates the sentiment in the crypto market and describes it in figures ranging from zero to one hundred. These days’ values exceed 50 and indicate a market correction that has been having investors buying frenziedly and sparked a new wave of optimism. It’s essential to note that such events can drive the prices of a top cryptocurrency like Bitcoin up. Investors who look to engage with crypto should first determine whether the market is oversold or overbought. It’s normal for crypto prices to sink slightly after prices rise massively, and some investors ditch their holdings to make profits. It’s the long-term holders, such as whales, that rarely or never cash in on their digital assets. And it’s basically what happened with Bitcoin recently. Bitcoin has shed a few hundred dollars and has traded at around $116K a few days after it surpassed the ATH of $123K for the first time. 

Even so, the crypto market leader continues to trade at close to double its year-ago valuation, highlighting the strength of long-term investor sentiment. In light of recent milestones, it’s worth examining the key factors that have reignited interest in Bitcoin – and what could sustain its momentum moving forward. Let’s delve in, shall we?

Photo source: https://unsplash.com/photos/icon-1F2sz1CaqR4

The overview 

Most of the crypto cycles the market has become accustomed to were driven by the surge in popularity and subsequently the price of stocks fueled by online hype, as well as the increased amount of retail capital injected into the market. From viral news to media buzz, these have sustained some of the biggest crypto rallies to date. However, this record-setting rally stands out, for it’s driven by factors such as: 

  • Institutional activity from banks, corporations, asset managers, pension funds, and even governments that are methodically integrating Bitcoin into their strategies;
  • Big mainstream financial players like BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Fidelity, that are embracing Bitcoin by offering products such as BTC ETFs, holding it on their balance sheets, or integrating it into client portfolios; 
  • Investors who are adjusting their investment strategies by reallocating money to Bitcoin due to shifting macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical risks, monetary policies, interest rates, and inflation. 

This time, the rally is not based on hype or short-term price action, but on a belief that Bitcoin has a lasting role in the financial ecosystem. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs contribution 

ETFs are investment funds that investors can buy, much like they do with stocks. In just one day, they attracted $1.3BN, marking the second-highest daily amount ever engrossed. BlackRock’s BTC ETF alone now stores approximately $90BN, positioning it as one of the 20 biggest ETFs in the entire U.S. market. All the BTC ETFs listed in the U.S. now manage over $153BN in total – a score that didn’t exist a year and a half ago. The more investors pour into these assets, the lower the supply on the market is, and the trend of continuously tightening supply has supported the price and added more legitimacy to Bitcoin. It’s no longer seen as a speculative asset, but as a serious investment with long-term potential. This is also highlighted by the companies that trade on the stock market that now hold $91BN worth of Bitcoin, a 23% jump in three months. 

This level of institutional inflow highlights the accelerating pace of Wall Street adoption and Bitcoin’s growing status as a legitimate macro asset.

Bitcoin’s function as a strategic reserve

Big-name firms like Trump Media and GameStop have started investing massively in Bitcoin, not just to create and sell financial products, but to hold it in the long term. Bitcoin now serves as a corporate treasury reserve for an increasing number of companies, much like gold and cash, in an attempt to hedge against inflation and grow the value of their portfolios. 

Even private companies are leaning into Bitcoin, merging with companies that are already listed through SPACs instead of the traditional, costly, and lengthy IPO to become public. ProCap’s engrossed amount right now, for instance, surpasses $750MN, with the firm planning to possess over $1BN worth of Bitcoin at some point. 

All these moves are drawing in billions of dollars. However, some fear it’s becoming a bubble, with too much capital buying into the idea of Bitcoin as corporate “digital gold.”

Bitcoin options on their last legs

Multiple Bitcoin options expired in June, easing the selling pressure in the market. Investors who had anticipated that Bitcoin’s price would drop and failed had to rebuy Bitcoin due to the rising prices, which consequently catapulted the asset’s worth even more. 

Bitcoin futures now hold $88BN, disclosing how the confidence of institutional investors regarding digital assets strengthens. Ethereum open interest sees similar activity, flirting with new ATHs. 

The “crypto week”

Possibly one of the most discussed topics of the month, the House of Representatives has named the 14th of July the “crypto week”. In this context, the U.S. establishes three landmark bills: 

  • The GENIUS Act aims to clarify when a digital asset, such as a cryptocurrency token, is treated as a commodity or security, thereby removing the skepticism encountered by startups looking to engage with crypto. The Senate has already okayed this act. 
  • The Clarity Act, which grants Congress the power to determine how crypto assets are controlled and catalogued. 
  • The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State bans the Fed from launching a CBDC, preventing possible competition with Bitcoin. 

In the future, this could transform institutional decentralized finance into a reality, mainly by enabling traditional venues to explore on-chain financial activities without instantly needing to register as a clearinghouse or exchange. 

Endnote

With growing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and strategic corporate investment, Bitcoin’s rally discloses that investors are no longer seeing the asset as speculative; they are becoming increasingly confident in its potential to become a mainstream financial asset.